OMG: Mets look to keep up good vibes with three against red-hot Astros (2024)

Two teams that have clawed their way back to .500 with excellent Junes meet this weekend at Citi Field, as the Mets (39-39) host the Astros (40-40) for a three-game series. The Mets, fresh off a two-game sweep of the crosstown Yankees, have been the best offensive team in baseball in June, and since Grimace threw out his infamous first pitch, the team has not just played well, but has had the best vibes of the season, with everything going the team’s way despite some setbacks due to injury, suspension, and Jeff McNeil.

The Astros are winners of seven straight and have separated themselves from the non-Mariners teams in the American League West with their current success. They are doing so without old friend/surefire Hall of Fame-r Justin Verlander, who is sidelined with a sore neck and isn’t currently throwing a baseball.

But Verlander’s absence hasn’t slowed them down, at least not as of late. In their current seven game win streak, they have beat up on mostly bad teams (White Sox, Tigers, Rockies), but also took two from the Orioles, who are decidedly not bad.

They’re running into a bit of a buzzsaw in the Mets, however. The Mets scored 21 runs against the Yankees and, while their bullpen made it interesting, the team seems like they’re rolling offensively like we haven’t seen this season. Role players like Harrison Bader and Mark Vientos are lengthening the lineup with real power at the bottom, and the return of Francisco Alvarez has been felt from both sides of the dish.

However, with Edwin Díaz serving his suspension until July 6 and Drew Smith on the IL, the bullpen is looking pretty depleted. This is an area where the Mets really need to focus in the next eight games: how can we not blow games until Díaz returns? Reed Garrett and Dedniel Nuñez have been impressive and, in his mop up/long man duty, Adrian Houser has been perfectly serviceable. But beyond that, the bullpen is showing signs of regression to the mean, age, and general ineffectiveness.

Friday, June 28: José Quintana vs Ronel Blanco at 7:10 PM EDT on SNY

Quintana (2024): 78.2 IP, 58 K, 26 BB, 12 HR, 4.58 ERA, 4.88 FIP, ERA-

Quintana has thrown two excellent starts in a row for the Mets, giving up just one earned run over 12 and a third innings with 14 strikeouts against the Cubs and Padres. The six innings a piece is especially important given the state of the bullpen and some of his fellow rotation mates’ inability to get through five.

Blanco (2024): 84.2 IP, 79 K, 34 BB, 10 HR, 2.34 ERA, 4.07 FIP, ERA-

After a pair of rough starts at the end of May/beginning of June, Blanco is coming off of three excellent games. 20 innings of two-run ball with 22 strikeouts. In his second season in the majors, Blanco has improved in almost every way while throwing more innings and establishing himself as a cornerstone of the Astros rotation. While his strikeout rate is slightly down (8.4/9 versus 9.0/9 last season), Blanco is walking fewer batters, giving up fewer hits, fewer home runs, and fewer runs.

Saturday, June 29: Tylor Megill vs Framber Valdez at 4:10 PM EDT on SNY

Megill (2024): 33.2 IP, 43 K, 16 BB, 2 HR, 4.81 ERA, 2.98 FIP, ERA-

Megill has been the recipient of some bad luck on the mound - look at the almost two run differential between his ERA and FIP - but he is scratching and clawing to hold onto a spot in the starting rotation right now, with both José Butto and Christian Scott waiting in the wings, as well as Kodai Senga on his way back. Megill’s strikeouts have bene there this year, but it seems like every ball that makes contact with a bat is falling in for a hit, as evidenced by his .349 BABIP and 1.426 WHIP.

Valdez (2024): 80.2 IP, 63 K, 26 BB, 7 HR, 3.68 ERA, 3.88 FIP, ERA-

With a diminished strikeout rate, Valdez has looked a little less dominant in 2024 than he has over the past four seasons. However, when looking at his June performance, he has just one poor performance - a four-inning outing against the Giants - to show for it. Otherwise, he’s been quite effective, going at lest six in all his other starts, with a complete game, one-run performance agains the Angels and an excellent start against the Orioles this past Sunday.

Sunday, June 3-: Luis Severino vs TBD at 1:40 PM EDT on SNY

Severino (2024): 90.1 IP, 71 K, 31 BB, 8 HR, 3.29 ERA, 3.93 FIP, ERA-

If you had told anyone that, when this series came around, that Severino would have thrown the most innings of any of the pitchers appearing, it would’ve seemed absolutely bonkers. But here we are, and the Severenaissance is upon us. Severino has been the picture of consistency throwing between 88 and 103 pitches in his 15 starts. In his June starts, he’s shown the various ways to win: an eight inning dominant performance, a ‘by the skin of your teeth’ six run nail biter, and a couple of quality starts against bad teams.